The NFL's Reactive Strength Problem: A Billion Dollar Cost?

Exploring the cost of "Dead Money" of Reactive Strength Injuries.

The NFL’s Billion Dollar Problem

Since proposing the concept of Point B, we have been using real-life athlete scenarios—most recently Christian McCaffrey—to illustrate how not being at Point B is a limiting constraint on the generation of high performance and is driving stagnation in sport. In analyzing these athletes through the four fundamentals elements of Point B, one specific element has stole the spotlight. Our subscribers could easily guess that the star of stagnation in sport show is reactive strength, specifically the biological bottom-up element of connective tissue.

In reviewing last year’s NFL injuries, it became apparent that the vast majority were related to deficits in reactive strength. The only other major case we discussed was Patrick Kane’s from the NHL, which involved a lack of joint function. In his case, Kane’s hip biologically accommodated to the demands of hockey to the point where, by his mid-30s, his hip joint had completely degenerated, ultimately leading to a total hip replacement.¹

Aside from Kane, most of our analysis focused on reactive strength injuries. We highlighted athletes like Jalen Hurts, who have highly developed neurological networks of absolute strength, yet we observed a trend of stagnation across the league. Instead of seeing NFL athletes reach higher levels of performance, many—like Joe Burrow, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Rodgers—were either sidelined or struggling with recurring reactive strength injuries. Based on this trend, and from the perspective of strength practitioners, we predicted that this NFL season would be defined by reactive strength problems—hence our phrase "the NFL’s Reactive Strength Problem"—and early data supports our conclusion.

As we track the data on the NFL’s Reactive Strength Problem this season, it’s provided insights into just how much this problem is costing the league and its owners. At this pace, reaching the billion-dollar mark seems as certain as the Super Bowl itself—meaning these so-called "minor setbacks," as coaches often refer to them, are on track to cost the NFL a billion dollars.²

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A Billion Dollars of Dead Money?

Yes, a billion dollars.

Let’s take a look at the cost of Christian McCaffrey and you will see just how expensive this problem is. McCaffrey’s contract with the San Francisco 49ers averages $16 million per year. Given that the NFL regular season consists of 17 games, this translates to a cost of approximately $941,176 per game. If McCaffrey returns after the 49ers' Week 9 bye, he will have missed 8 games, resulting in a total expenditure of about $7.53 million for those missed games.³

Now, let’s consider a hypothetical scenario: if every NFL team has similarly paid $7.5 million in salaries to players sidelined by reactive strength injuries—Reactive Strength Dead Money⁴—through the first 8 games of the season, that would lead to a staggering total of $240 million of dead money across the league.⁵ And keep in mind, this figure represents just the halfway point of the season.

The Cost of San Francisco 49ers Reactive Strength Problem

The 49ers are on pace to be the top spenders in the reactive strength problem, having incurred a cost of at least $941,176 per week so far. Let's examine the economic impact of this dead money issue further, particularly in Week 3 of the season when they faced a loss against the Rams. Not only did Christian McCaffrey not play, but neither did two other All-Pros, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel.

For that week, Samuel's average salary is $1.24 million, while Kittle earns approximately $794,117. Together, they account for a total of $2,034,117 in missed salaries. When we add McCaffrey's cost of $941,176 for that game, the total for just those three players is approximately $2.97 million.

Additionally, the 49ers had other players out, including DB Charvarius Ward, who averages $1,078,882 per game. Incorporating Ward’s salary into the mix brings the total cost for that weekend up to about $4.05 million just for the players we mentioned, which does not account for every reactive strength injury on that roster that one weekend.

An Expensive $129.6 million Weekend

Now that we understand the costs associated with the reactive strength problem for the 49ers, let's consider a scenario where each of the 32 NFL teams incurs a $4.05 million reactive strength bill for a single weekend. This calculation—$4.05 million multiplied by 32 teams—results in a total cost of $129.6 million in dead money. It's important to emphasize that this figure represents only one weekend's worth of expenses related to the reactive strength problem.

A Solvable Problem

While the NFL may portray their Reactive Strength Problem as unsolvable, we have effective training solutions that directly address this problem—after all, we were the first to identify it.⁶ It all starts with embracing the paradigm shift we’ve been advocating here at Absolute. It's time for strength practitioners to step up and start to wrestle this billion-dollar gorilla that the NFL has been feeding an endless supply of bananas—because this situation is truly bananas. To the NFL, we would gladly accept 1% of the total bill to help—after all, that’s not too much to ask, is it?

1. It’s surprising that one of the best players in the NHL was able to completely degenerate his hip joint during his career, and this hasn’t received more attention as a storyline.

2. Credit to Paul Leduc for following this data.

3. Calculated as 8 games x $941,176

4. Historically, dead money in the NFL refers to salary cap charge for players no longer on the roster. This charge continues to count against a team's salary cap even after a player has been cut or traded. The reactive strength dead money is the charge for players on the roster but cannot play due to a connective tissue specific injury—i.e., Achilles ruptures, hamstrings strains, pec tears, etc.

5. Calculated as $7.5 million x 32 teams

6. This problem is often labeled as 'unsolvable' because of an incomplete understanding of reactive strength. The consequences of this incomplete understanding results in ineffective and inadequate training and treatment solutions—which is what we see with the NFL Reactive Strength Problem.